A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
