Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
