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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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