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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd